Investing Article: October 2010 – Quantitative Easing – It Works… Until It Doesn’t

Posted by admin on October 17, 2010  |  No Comments

Here are the highlights of this month’s investing article:

• Over the last six weeks, the market has seen a major rally, from 1,049 on the S&P to 1,146 as of Friday, October 15, 2010.  Truth is, most money managers missed it.

• The economy hasn’t changed much, but Fed policy has, and Washington policy will probably change with elections in early November.  The Fed has returned to quantitative easing and is even encouraging inflation.  A looser Fed and gridlock in Washington sets us up for a bullish environment into the end of the year.

• So what next.  We’re in the midst of earnings season, so I think it pays to see where the numbers are.  Likely, there will be buying opportunities after the releases are out.

Here’s the link:

http://www.minglo.com/investing/2010/10/investing-article-october-2010-quantitative-easing-it-works-until-it-doesnt/

Investing Article: September 2010 – Hide, But Don’t Hibernate

Posted by admin on September 7, 2010  |  No Comments

Here are the highlights of this month’s investing article:

• For most of the summer, the market has been stuck in a trading range between about 1040 and 1125 on the S&P.  It’s unlikely that we will break above this range; a sideways market is most likely, with a break below 1040 a close second.

• In late September to October, earnings could be weak, but it’s the outlook that will matter.  Pressure on Democrats to change course could be positive for markets as the November election approaches, and year-end spending could also be give markets a lift.  Because of these factors, I’m inclined to be bullish from late October through year-end.

• For me, the strategy remains the same.  If you’re conservative, stay in cash, and if you can take some more risk, go for stable, dividend-paying stocks.  Also, there are stocks such as Apple to play into year-end.  Plus, many stocks do fall to cheap levels, especially when the S&P is near 1040 or below.  So hide if you wish, but don’t completely hibernate.

Here’s the link:

http://www.minglo.com/investing/2010/09/investing-article-september-2010-hide-but-dont-hibernate-part-i/

Investing Article: August 2010 – Time to Vote Republican

Posted by admin on August 12, 2010  |  No Comments

Here are the highlights of this month’s investing article:

• In July, Europe and China calmed (though not resolved), but investors are now worried about US growth.

• There’s not really foreseeable positive catalysts in the market until the November elections.  If the Democrats win, markets will drop.  If Republicans make headway, the market will rise.

• For investors, it’s perfectly fine to stay on the sidelines in cash.  But the next 4-6 months could also be a great buying opportunity, so best to frosty.

Here are the links:

http://www.minglo.com/investing/2010/08/investing-article-august-2010-time-to-vote-republican-part-i/

http://www.minglo.com/investing/2010/08/investing-article-august-2010-%E2%80%93-time-to-vote-republican-part-ii/

http://www.minglo.com/investing/2010/08/investing-article-august-2010-%E2%80%93-time-to-vote-republican-part-iii/

Investing Article: July 2010 – Markets Break Down

Posted by admin on July 2, 2010  |  No Comments

Investing: Markets Break Down

July 1, 2010

Here are the highlights of this month’s investing article:

• In June, the markets broke down below critical levels.  Charts of major indicators – the S&P, the Euro/Yen and the Shanghai Composite, as well as charts of markets leaders Apple, FCX and GS, show breakdowns.

• Technicals are bearish and fundamentals are unclear.  A review of macro issues shows unresolved problems around the world.

• The investment game plan is simple: until we see solutions to the macro problems enacted, be in cash, sell the rallies.  Still, it makes sense to create a shopping list, because we could face another historic buying opportunity in the next six months.

The article will soon be posted on the site www.asiancemagazine.com, but also here on my site as three separate posts:

Part I: http://www.minglo.com/investing/2010/07/investing-article-july-2010-markets-break-down-part-iii/

Part II: http://www.minglo.com/investing/2010/07/investing-article-july-2010-markets-break-down-part-ii/

Part III: http://www.minglo.com/investing/2010/07/investing-article-july-2010-markets-break-down-part-i/

Investing Article: June 2010 – Wait and See

Posted by admin on June 1, 2010  |  No Comments

Here’s the highlights of this month’s investing article:

• In May 2010, the European debt crisis, the feared slowdown in China, regulation in Washington and the Flash Crash drove markets down swiftly and harshly.

• Going forward, much depends on whether the Debt Crisis in Europe can be contained, and whether China can prevent a burst of its own bubble.  The US is hostage to events in Europe and China.

• The technicals are decidedly bearish, with a break below 1040 on the S&P spelling trouble for the markets going forward, and a break above the 1110-1120 level could be bullish

• In the meantime, we are in wait-and-see mode.  I’ve taken my clients to 40-60% cash, and plan on keeping exposure to the market low until a clear trend is established.

The article will soon be posted on the site www.asiancemagazine.com, but also here on my site as four separate posts:

Part I: http://minglo.com/investing/2010/05/marketwatch-investing-in-the-month-of-may/

Part II: http://minglo.com/investing/2010/05/marketwatch-outlook-may-31-2010/

Part III: http://minglo.com/investing/2010/06/investing-wait-and-see-part-iiithe/

Part IV: http://minglo.com/investing/2010/06/wait-see-part-iv-conclusions/

Investing Article: May 2010 – Adjusting the Plan

Posted by admin on May 1, 2010  |  No Comments

My latest investing article is up on www.asiancemagazine.com.  Here’s the highlights:

• An Uncertain Start to May. With stocks selling off after earnings, financial reform, a major Gulf oil spill and Greek debt issues, we’re likely in for a bit of a correction as May starts.

• The Bright Side: A Short Term Buying Opportunity? Fundamentals remain positive, a correction would resolve overbought conditions and a positive unemployment report could lead to a bit of a renewed rally in the market.

• Summer of 2010: Shifting Winds in the 2nd Half. Still, the market is likely to be in transition this summer. As the temporary catalysts of stimulus, cost cutting and inventory re-stocking fall away, we face the question of whether we will have sustained consumer spending and falling unemployment.

• The Game Plan. Updated perspectives on tech; large cap value; financials; retail; interest rates, Treasuries and bonds; and China as we approach mid-year.

Here’s the link:

http://www.asiancemagazine.com/2010/05/06/investing–adjusting-the-plan

As always, thanks for reading,

Ming

Investing Article: April 2010 – The Reaction to Earnings

Posted by admin on April 1, 2010  |  No Comments

My latest investing article is up on www.asiancemagazine.com.  Here’s the highlights:

• The Reluctant March Rally. For the last two months, the market has marched slowly and inexorably upward. Investors jumped in not because they wanted to, but because they had to.

• Analyzing the Market. I’ve tried different approaches to analyzing the market, and I’ve found many of them inadequate. Today, I look at at least four dimensions: macroeconomics, money flow, fundamentals and technicals.

• First Quarter Earnings. All the factors that have been moving the market forward remain in place. First quarter earnings should be, on the whole, positive.

• Intel Case Study. Still, it doesn’t mean that investors should jump in during earnings. For the average investor, waiting to see the reaction after earnings might be the best approach. A look at Intel as a case study of one way to handle earnings.

• Stock Updates. Updates on Apple, Goldman Sachs and Citi.

Here’s the link:

http://www.asiancemagazine.com/2010/04/20/investing–the-reaction-to-earnings

As always, thanks for reading,

Ming

Investing Article: March 2010 – Vigilance

Posted by admin on March 1, 2010  |  No Comments

My latest investing article is up on www.asiancemagazine.com.  Here’s the highlights:

• The February Correction. In late January through early February, we saw an 8% correction (based on the S&P). As of today, we’ve retraced almost all of that 8%.

• The Clouds – China, Europe, Inflation and Interest Rates, and US Regulation. It may seem like the recent correction never happened, but we’ll continue to be dogged by weakness in China, debt problems in Europe, the possibility of higher interest rates and regulation from Washington. The investor needs to be vigilant and watchful of these “clouds”.

• Looking Forward. I continue to expect 2010 to be range-bound, generally. The long-term conservative investor can earn some return by leaning toward defensive, dividend-paying blue chip stocks. For those that can be more active, look to trade around a core position – taking some profits when the stock rallies, and doing some buying on the dips. With the market near it’s recent high, the more active investor should be asking whether it’s time to take some profits.

• Stock Updates. Quick looks at Apple, Goldman and Citi – what opportunities they present, and what they tell us about today’s market.

Here’s the link:

http://www.asiancemagazine.com/node/7960

As always, thanks for reading,

Ming

Investing Article: February 2010 – The Vulnerable Market

Posted by admin on February 1, 2010  |  No Comments

My latest investing article is up on www.asiancemagazine.com.  Here’s the highlights:

• A Shaky January. We started off well, but the end of stimulus in China, a spreading crisis in Greece and regulation in Washington shook the markets.

• A Matter of Perspective. How fundamentalist and technicians look at the market. Fundamentalists are finding buying opportunities over the long-term, technicians are worried that the market will fall further.

• A More Robust Framework. For me, it helps to incorporate macroeconomic analysis into the more common fundamental and technical methods.

• What’s Next. Expect headwinds to cause a correction and to limit the upward movement of stocks. It’s time to be a bit defensive and cautious.

Here’s the link:

http://www.asiancemagazine.com/content/investing-vulnerable-market

As always, thanks for reading,

Ming

Investing Article: January 2010 – The Shifting Landscape

Posted by admin on January 1, 2010  |  No Comments

My latest investing article is up on www.asiancemagazine.com.  Here’s the highlights:

• Investing Strategies and Ideas for 2010. Investing themes for the next year, including product cycles, defensive plays with high dividends, inflation plays, caution in commodities in the short-term, avoiding real estate and exiting longer-term bonds. Plus a list of specific ideas.

• Things to Watch Out For in 2010. Thinking about the possible downside is always a good idea. Macro things that may knock the markets off-balance include inflation concerns, interest rate increases, weakness in China, Eurozone problems, tensions in the Middle East and government regulation.

Here’s the link:

http://www.asiancemagazine.com/content/investing-shifting-landscape

As always, thanks for reading,

Ming